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| How will Cav fare in the Tour? |
| Green Jersey |
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4% |
[ 4 ] |
| 3 plus stage wins and is spared the mountains |
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14% |
[ 14 ] |
| a couple of stage wins |
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49% |
[ 47 ] |
| a load of near misses |
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17% |
[ 17 ] |
| Calamity crashes out and misses Beijing |
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13% |
[ 13 ] |
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| Total Votes : 95 |
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Roy Gardiner
T de F Winner
Joined: 14 Jul 2003
Posts: 21249
Location: London and Essex
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 Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:06 am Post subject: |
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| Tucker wrote: |
| Bwah ha ha! This is the Tour, not some tin pot stage race - Millar has no chance. Bettini is my tip for the first stage, if he's racing. He's got to be hitting form soon, with the olympics coming up. |
| Billy Boy wrote: |
I don't think there's a cat in hell's chance of a breakaway on stage one. The last hour will be ballistic.
I can see Zabel getting up there. |
Oh alright then I was just being an optimist  yes the last hour will be mayhem.
Long uphill finish surely won't favour Zabel?
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Billynobrakes
Div 1 Pro
Joined: 30 Apr 2003
Posts: 7147
Location: Newark on Trent
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:06 am Post subject: |
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| Billy Boy wrote: |
| Roy Gardiner wrote: |
| Tucker wrote: |
| Roy Gardiner wrote: |
| If the favourites just want to finish all together and aren't interested in stirring, then the first two stages might favour small breakaway group(s) with someone who can win from such a group taking yellow. An outside chance for Millar? |
Bwah ha ha! This is the Tour, not some tin pot stage race - Millar has no chance. Bettini is my tip for the first stage, if he's racing. He's got to be hitting form soon, with the olympics coming up. |
Just a moment; he damn nearly did it in a Giro stage - which isn't 'tin pot' - and I did say if the favourites didn't want to cause trouble. It'd have to be a break they allowed to go in order for the finish not to be carnage (as alluded to above). Hence outside chance. |
I don't think there's a cat in hell's chance of a breakaway on stage one. The last hour will be ballistic.
I can see Zabel getting up there. |
Maybe - he won there in 1997, however he's not the same rider he was back then. I reckon Hushovd will have a good go though.
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Joursans
Div 2 Pro
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 4840
Location: The Whole Year Inn
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:44 am Post subject: |
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Mmmm I was thinking Hushovd,
Is a 1.6km climb long enough to make much of a difference to a charging balls out TDF Peloton?
Would be nice to see some of the more powerful teams causing chaos with echelons - esp teams with a good GC prospect but not much climbing support. Forecast looks ropey  . CSC used do this for fun in the Paris Nice but I expect they'll be quite conservative tomorrow. 
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Megman
Div 2 Pro
Joined: 11 Jul 2003
Posts: 5786
Location: Not in Lich any more
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:49 am Post subject: |
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Friere, won a stage in the TdeS by getting over some hills when the other sprinters got dropped. Look what happened to Hoshovd in the Dauhpine when there was an uphill sprint (Valverde won)
Don't know how steep this hill is, but if it is proper hill then we are into Rico, Valverde, Rebellin, Kirchin territory. |
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jn131
E, Bronze
Joined: 05 Jan 2007
Posts: 295
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:50 am Post subject: |
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1.7k at 6% average.
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Scalatore
E, Gold
Joined: 08 Feb 2007
Posts: 2484
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:52 am Post subject: |
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Gert Steegmans. He's got previous on these type finishes. Like in this year's Paris Nice.
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Billy Boy
T de F Winner
Joined: 11 Aug 2003
Posts: 30726
Location: Not Aylesbury
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 11:07 am Post subject: |
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| Roy Gardiner wrote: |
| Tucker wrote: |
| Bwah ha ha! This is the Tour, not some tin pot stage race - Millar has no chance. Bettini is my tip for the first stage, if he's racing. He's got to be hitting form soon, with the olympics coming up. |
| Billy Boy wrote: |
I don't think there's a cat in hell's chance of a breakaway on stage one. The last hour will be ballistic.
I can see Zabel getting up there. |
Oh alright then I was just being an optimist yes the last hour will be mayhem.
Long uphill finish surely won't favour Zabel? |
I reckon it will, he's finding some form and although isn't as quick as he was he's a strongman.
(That's him cursed!) 
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"Well done, you are 100% absolutely without a shadow of a doubt spot-bollock-on correct." - Tucker
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Richard
World Champ
Joined: 28 Jun 2002
Posts: 14007
Location: Coventry
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: |
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I'm going for Pretty Boy Pozzato - don't particularly like him but you can't fault him as a rider.
Either him or Ballan.
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hunterbark
E, Silver
Joined: 27 Feb 2006
Posts: 741
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 11:56 am Post subject: |
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| I think one of the 'new' teams will be out to show themselves on the 1st stage, so Columbia or Garmin will be keeping it together and then ripping it to shreds in the crosswind before the last hill, attempting to launch Vande Velde, Hincapie, Kirchen or ........ Millar? |
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Megman
Div 2 Pro
Joined: 11 Jul 2003
Posts: 5786
Location: Not in Lich any more
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Billy Boy wrote: |
I reckon it will, he's finding some form and although isn't as quick as he was he's a strongman.
(That's him cursed!) |
Least sarcastic post from Billy ever?
I think there will be too many guys with realy sprints for Millar. Hincapie is a good shout as it Steegmans after that win in PN.
Chances of a big crash and at least one GC contender going out on the first day? Pretty good I reckon with so many in with a chance on the first day. |
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hunterbark
E, Silver
Joined: 27 Feb 2006
Posts: 741
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 12:40 pm Post subject: |
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| I even expect in this tour to see GC teams riding on the front as soon as a favourite punctures in the first few stages, it's so wide open they'll take any opportunity they can. 23 seconds in last years tour will be in their minds. |
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dockeca
Div 2 Pro
Joined: 27 Feb 2002
Posts: 4741
Location: halfway up the South Downs - or halfway down the South Ups!
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 4:57 pm Post subject: |
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It's so open, almost anything could happen. I'm not sure Cav will have much left to defend a green jersey, even if he does manage to drag himself through the mountains, but just cross fingers for him.
As for quotes, well he's always going to be good for that, the way he goes on sometimes, so sharp, I'm beginning to think that he's more an *CENSORED* scouser than an IoM native....(stands back and takes cover).
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"Any views expressed are entirely my own and not representative of any organisation of which I may or may not be a member. Unless I say otherwise."
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mho
Div 1 Pro
Joined: 28 Jul 2003
Posts: 9577
Location: going round the banking
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 8:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Tucker wrote: |
| Bettini is my tip for the first stage, if he's racing. |
Riding the Tour of Austria so he is out. Valverde for the win tomorrow to make a physcological point. |
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mho
Div 1 Pro
Joined: 28 Jul 2003
Posts: 9577
Location: going round the banking
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| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 8:51 am Post subject: |
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| mho wrote: |
| Tucker wrote: |
| Bettini is my tip for the first stage, if he's racing. |
Riding the Tour of Austria so he is out. Valverde for the win tomorrow to make a physcological point. |
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Dogma Dave
Div 1 Pro
Joined: 08 Feb 2007
Posts: 6714
Location: God's Own County
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| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:01 am Post subject: |
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| mho wrote: |
| mho wrote: |
| Tucker wrote: |
| Bettini is my tip for the first stage, if he's racing. |
Riding the Tour of Austria so he is out. Valverde for the win tomorrow to make a physcological point. |
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Good call on stage winner, but maybe you would care to explain what physcological means  |
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Roy Gardiner
T de F Winner
Joined: 14 Jul 2003
Posts: 21249
Location: London and Essex
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| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:10 am Post subject: |
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| Dogma Dave wrote: |
| mho wrote: |
| mho wrote: |
| Tucker wrote: |
| Bettini is my tip for the first stage, if he's racing. |
Riding the Tour of Austria so he is out. Valverde for the win tomorrow to make a physcological point. |
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Good call on stage winner, but maybe you would care to explain what physcological means |
To show the others how good he is, to rub it in, to take the mickey, etc. To demoralise the opposition.
But IMO it could rebound; if he holds yellow for more than a couple of days, the team'll get the idea to attempt to hold it start-to-finish. Especially if he does really well in the first ITT and has a good gap, making it possible to hold it at least until the first mountains. This would create impossible pressure on the support riders as well as Valverde himself and collapse in the 3rd week.
(Am I jumping the gun a bit here...  )
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"Everything in war is simple, but the simplest thing is difficult." Carl Von Clausewitz |
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Steve McGinty
Div 2 Pro
Joined: 13 Dec 2003
Posts: 4902
Location: Norther than the Northerners
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| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:35 am Post subject: |
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If Valverde still has the jersey after the TT, Caisse d'Epargne will want a break to get 15-16 mins on Wednesday or Thursday so they don't have to defend it.
Might be harder than usual to achieve, as Wed is totally flat, so the sprinter's teams will want the stage, while Thursday has a 2nd cat climb and an 11k uphill finish, which the GC contenders will be interested in.
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Dogma Dave
Div 1 Pro
Joined: 08 Feb 2007
Posts: 6714
Location: God's Own County
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| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:39 am Post subject: |
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| Roy Gardiner wrote: |
| Dogma Dave wrote: |
| mho wrote: |
| mho wrote: |
| Tucker wrote: |
| Bettini is my tip for the first stage, if he's racing. |
Riding the Tour of Austria so he is out. Valverde for the win tomorrow to make a physcological point. |
|
Good call on stage winner, but maybe you would care to explain what physcological means |
To show the others how good he is, to rub it in, to take the mickey, etc. To demoralise the opposition.
But IMO it could rebound; if he holds yellow for more than a couple of days, the team'll get the idea to attempt to hold it start-to-finish. Especially if he does really well in the first ITT and has a good gap, making it possible to hold it at least until the first mountains. This would create impossible pressure on the support riders as well as Valverde himself and collapse in the 3rd week.
(Am I jumping the gun a bit here... ) |
Physcological is not in my dictionary. Physiological is, so it could be that I guess. Psychological is too, so it could be that, and seems to fit in with your interpretation. |
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Billy Boy
T de F Winner
Joined: 11 Aug 2003
Posts: 30726
Location: Not Aylesbury
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| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Dogma Dave wrote: |
| Roy Gardiner wrote: |
| Dogma Dave wrote: |
| mho wrote: |
| mho wrote: |
| Tucker wrote: |
| Bettini is my tip for the first stage, if he's racing. |
Riding the Tour of Austria so he is out. Valverde for the win tomorrow to make a physcological point. |
|
Good call on stage winner, but maybe you would care to explain what physcological means |
To show the others how good he is, to rub it in, to take the mickey, etc. To demoralise the opposition.
But IMO it could rebound; if he holds yellow for more than a couple of days, the team'll get the idea to attempt to hold it start-to-finish. Especially if he does really well in the first ITT and has a good gap, making it possible to hold it at least until the first mountains. This would create impossible pressure on the support riders as well as Valverde himself and collapse in the 3rd week.
(Am I jumping the gun a bit here... ) |
Physcological is not in my dictionary. Physiological is, so it could be that I guess. Psychological is too, so it could be that, and seems to fit in with your interpretation. |
I like "physcological, it's a good word I reckon. 
_________________
"Well done, you are 100% absolutely without a shadow of a doubt spot-bollock-on correct." - Tucker
"Eating is not for wimps" - coal miner
"most of us don't have your brilliance." - John McC |
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Davey C
Div 2 Pro
Joined: 01 Jun 2008
Posts: 5745
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| Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 9:07 am Post subject: |
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| Roy Gardiner wrote: |
| Dogma Dave wrote: |
| mho wrote: |
| mho wrote: |
| Tucker wrote: |
| Bettini is my tip for the first stage, if he's racing. |
Riding the Tour of Austria so he is out. Valverde for the win tomorrow to make a physcological point. |
|
Good call on stage winner, but maybe you would care to explain what physcological means |
To show the others how good he is, to rub it in, to take the mickey, etc. To demoralise the opposition.
But IMO it could rebound; if he holds yellow for more than a couple of days, the team'll get the idea to attempt to hold it start-to-finish. Especially if he does really well in the first ITT and has a good gap, making it possible to hold it at least until the first mountains. This would create impossible pressure on the support riders as well as Valverde himself and collapse in the 3rd week.
(Am I jumping the gun a bit here... ) |
I think you are quite right Roy., Cass rode on the front all day yesterday, they are going to be fried before the moutnains at this rate. USPS they are not.
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