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| who will win up alpe'd'huez tomorrow? |
| Armstrong |
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82% |
[ 39 ] |
| Ullrich |
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8% |
[ 4 ] |
| Basso |
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2% |
[ 1 ] |
| Kloden |
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6% |
[ 3 ] |
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| Total Votes : 47 |
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| Author |
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jk_bike
E, Silver
Joined: 03 Jul 2003
Posts: 1826
Location: the world
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 Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 7:14 pm Post subject: alpe'd'huez |
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who will win tomorrow????
i think ullrich. hes recovered from his sickness last week and has showed how strong he can be today. if not him then basso, allthough he doesnt seem as motivated as ullrich or armstrong....
i think it would have been hamilton if he hadnt crashed  , he still carried on for a week when he couldnt even get out of the saddle!!!!
Last edited by jk_bike on Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:58 am; edited 2 times in total |
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Tony Bell
T de F Winner
Joined: 06 Aug 2003
Posts: 25203
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| Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 7:39 pm Post subject: |
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Armstrong, deffo. He is a man posessed with winning the Tour. Number Six is already assured, it's just a case of 'Can he manage number 7?' now.
What a guy. I don't care if he's found some kind of undetactable *CENSORED* - not that anybody has proved that yet, as Lance has never failed a dope test, as we all know - and to come back from what he's been through is nothing short of miraculous.
Think about it? To recover from cancer and the synopsis he was given - 30% chance of survival in 1996 - is amazing.
For a guy in that position to win one Tour de France is a miracle. To win five, and the possibility of making it six is, well, I don't know. Do you? |
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Emma
Guest
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| Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 7:43 pm Post subject: |
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Ullrich of course  |
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Steve McGinty
Div 2 Pro
Joined: 13 Dec 2003
Posts: 4902
Location: Norther than the Northerners
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| Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 7:44 pm Post subject: |
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From my morning newspaper Armstrong's now not just talking about winning this year, but the next three years with his new sponsor (the Discovery Channel)
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Jonny H
E, Silver
Joined: 09 Apr 2004
Posts: 736
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| Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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Armstrong
If Hamilton was there able to climb he would win! |
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kylie
World Champ
Joined: 02 Apr 2004
Posts: 10856
Location: going to a Wham concert with Molly Ringwald.
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| Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 11:52 pm Post subject: |
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LA is domineering, unless there is a major mishap I can't se anyone else being a contender. Interseting to see what people think this time tomoorow!
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Simon Nicholas
Div 3 Pro
Joined: 11 Nov 2002
Posts: 4194
Location: Going South
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:06 am Post subject: |
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| jean jourdain wrote: |
| ....he was given - 30% chance of survival in 1996..... For a guy in that position to win one Tour de France is a miracle. To win five, and the possibility of making it six is, well, I don't know. Do you? |
Don't think he has been given even 5% chance of long term survival.
We are witnessing one of the great sporting events in history taking place that will be talked about for many many years.
In sporting circles, outside of cycling, people are looking on in amazement at his monumental achievment. It is a superb opportunity to showcase our sport to a wider audience.
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Roy Gardiner
T de F Winner
Joined: 14 Jul 2003
Posts: 21249
Location: London and Essex
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:12 am Post subject: |
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| Simon Nicholas wrote: |
| Don't think he has been given even 5% chance of long term survival. |
I recall his doctors being reported as lying to him ('50/50') when they privately thought, as you say, 5%. Do I read you as saying he has less than 5% chance of a normal lifespan now?
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Simon Nicholas
Div 3 Pro
Joined: 11 Nov 2002
Posts: 4194
Location: Going South
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:21 am Post subject: |
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| Roy Gardiner wrote: |
| Simon Nicholas wrote: |
| Don't think he has been given even 5% chance of long term survival. |
I recall his doctors being reported as lying to him ('50/50') when they privately thought, as you say, 5%. Do I read you as saying he has less than 5% chance of a normal lifespan now? |
I'm not his doctor so cannot comment specifically.
But Lance (being the sort of man he is, one never to bury his head in the sand) knows that when cancer physicians talk about "successful treatment" for cancer it does not mean what most of us think of as "successful treatment". It basically means extra time compared to the outcome if no initial treatment had taken place.
So, to answer your question, it is highly likely that any patient in Armstrongs position will have to face recurrence of the cancer.
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Animal
E, Silver
Joined: 19 Oct 2002
Posts: 1867
Location: East Notts
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:22 am Post subject: |
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There's no way Ullrich is going to win the Alpe d'Huez TT! 
Talk about wishful thinking! It might be predictable and boring but Armstrong will win it by a minute.
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Flabio Chubbolinni
E, Silver
Joined: 23 Jan 2004
Posts: 582
Location: Getting the Miles in
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 10:47 am Post subject: |
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Kloden will win because Armstrong will be riding to Basso's time splits. Simoni would be a good outside bet, as he has little else to go for this year.
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Roy Gardiner
T de F Winner
Joined: 14 Jul 2003
Posts: 21249
Location: London and Essex
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| Flabio Chubbolinni wrote: |
| Kloden will win because Armstrong will be riding to Basso's time splits. |
Armstrong will win because he wants to show the world he's the one. IIRC course record is Pantani 38mins??? Will LA set a new record?
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Coggy
Guest
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 10:58 am Post subject: |
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Maybe Kloden ?
Might Armstrong do enough to beat Basso, but stil leave something in the tank for tomorrows monster stage ? |
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NS
Guest
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:03 am Post subject: |
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Armstrong and he'll catch Basso  |
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Simon Nicholas
Div 3 Pro
Joined: 11 Nov 2002
Posts: 4194
Location: Going South
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:31 am Post subject: |
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Armstrong.
No-one else has lived with him in the mountains so far, apart from Basso, so why should things be any different today?
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Trevor Reade
E, Gold
Joined: 29 Jul 2003
Posts: 2573
Location: Haverhill and Chelmsford
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:50 am Post subject: |
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| NS wrote: |
| Armstrong and he'll catch Basso |
Agreed.
Last edited by Trevor Reade on Wed Jul 21, 2004 3:40 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Billy Boy
T de F Winner
Joined: 11 Aug 2003
Posts: 30726
Location: Not Aylesbury
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:56 am Post subject: |
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Totschnig for an outside bet.
Or Marius Sabaliauskas, cos I like his name!
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varno
Div 1 Pro
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Posts: 6368
Location: Bromsgrove
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:57 am Post subject: |
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| Simon Nicholas wrote: |
| Roy Gardiner wrote: |
| Simon Nicholas wrote: |
| Don't think he has been given even 5% chance of long term survival. |
I recall his doctors being reported as lying to him ('50/50') when they privately thought, as you say, 5%. Do I read you as saying he has less than 5% chance of a normal lifespan now? |
I'm not his doctor so cannot comment specifically.
But Lance (being the sort of man he is, one never to bury his head in the sand) knows that when cancer physicians talk about "successful treatment" for cancer it does not mean what most of us think of as "successful treatment". It basically means extra time compared to the outcome if no initial treatment had taken place.
So, to answer your question, it is highly likely that any patient in Armstrongs position will have to face recurrence of the cancer. |
The chance of Lance or any other Cancer survivors having a reoccurance is in most terms is the same as anyone else. EG If Lance has been succesfully treated (cured) of his type of Cancer he has the same chance as anyone else getting other type ie skin /lung/ blood etc.
The effect of having Cancer and getting through it is not only physical it is extremely mental and the mindset Lance is showing can only really be understood by other survivors.........Sorry if this sounds heavy....
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Roy Gardiner
T de F Winner
Joined: 14 Jul 2003
Posts: 21249
Location: London and Essex
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 12:14 pm Post subject: |
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| varno wrote: |
| Simon Nicholas wrote: |
... when cancer physicians talk about "successful treatment" for cancer it does not mean what most of us think of as "successful treatment". It basically means extra time compared to the outcome if no initial treatment had taken place.
So, to answer your question, it is highly likely that any patient in Armstrongs position will have to face recurrence of the cancer. |
The chance of Lance or any other Cancer survivors having a reoccurance is in most terms is the same as anyone else. EG If Lance has been succesfully treated (cured) of his type of Cancer he has the same chance as anyone else getting other type ie skin /lung/ blood etc. |
Hmm. Varno, are you saying
(a) that LA has the same chance as anyone else of any other kind of cancer
(b) the same chance of a recurrence of his cancer as anyone who has not had it getting it for the first time?
I have always thought that once you've had a cancer you are more likely to get it again than someone else who's never had it getting it, as Simon says.
Simon said 'Don't think he has been given even 5% chance of long term survival. ' This is a shocker; where did it come from?
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kylie
World Champ
Joined: 02 Apr 2004
Posts: 10856
Location: going to a Wham concert with Molly Ringwald.
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| Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 12:29 pm Post subject: |
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| NS wrote: |
| Armstrong and he'll catch Basso |
How much gap is there between each of the riders? Is it a minute? It would be quite a feet to catch him up if it was a minute, maybe if it was 30 secs?
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